WHAT KILLED THE MOVIE?
This investigation examines Moana, Supergirl, Masters of the Universe, The Bride!, and Desert Warrior: five expensive bets with very different outcomes. Follow the production decisions, marketing missteps, and market forces behind the verdicts, then check the sources and downloadable Coroner’s Report.
OPEN THE CASE FILES.
Expand a film to see the score, diagnosis, and supporting evidence.
MoanaDisney · Live-action remake · July 202620/30
CAUSE OF DEATHToo soon
The finding
Disney remade a movie ten years after the original and two years after a billion-dollar sequel. It opened one week after Minions & Monsters and three weeks after Toy Story 5. The people who went gave it an A–. There weren't enough of them.
The evidence
- Production budget: $250M. Worldwide gross: $323.4M, more than the other four films on this list combined ($264.9M). [1]
- About $100M in marketing. Variety put break-even near $650M. [2]
- Disney projected a $60–65M opening. It opened to $43.1M. [3] [4]
- A– CinemaScore. 34% with critics on Rotten Tomatoes. [3] [4]
- Disney waits about 27 years, on average, before remaking one of its animated films (analyst David Gross). This one waited 10. [2]
- Toy Story 5 opened three weeks earlier. Minions & Monsters opened one week earlier. [5]
- Moana 2 made $1.06B worldwide in 2024. [6]
Sources for this film
SupergirlWarner Bros. / DC Studios · June 202621/30
CAUSE OF DEATHOne movie old
The finding
A $170M spin-off from a universe with one movie in it. It opened $18M under tracking, fell 77% in its second weekend and finished as DC's lowest-grossing movie in more than two decades.
The evidence
- Production budget: $170M net (an early $200M report was disputed by James Gunn). Opened to $37.1M domestic. [1] [2]
- Tracking had it opening around $55M. [3]
- B– CinemaScore. Second weekend fell 77%. Critics: 52% on Rotten Tomatoes as of 10/21/2026 (Variety reported 56% at opening). [4] [1] [5]
- DC's lowest-grossing movie in more than two decades, since Catwoman (2004). [6]
- About $120M in marketing. Reported losses of $80–125M (Variety: $100–120M, one source $80–85M; Deadline: $125M). [7] [8]
- Coverage of Warner Bros. Discovery's Q2 earnings tied the revenue drop to Supergirl. The earnings release itself does not name the film. [9]
- Superman (July 2025) made $616M worldwide, less than a year before Supergirl opened. [10]
- In August 2026, Warner pulled a Lobo behind-the-scenes video for the digital release within hours, after fans said concept art on the director's laptop looked AI-generated. AI use is alleged, not confirmed. Warner never commented. [11] [12]
Sources for this film
Masters of the UniverseAmazon MGM Studios · June 202622/30
CAUSE OF DEATHWrong generation
The finding
A $170M movie built on a 1980s toy line. On opening weekend, 57% of the audience was over 35 and 4% was under 12. It opened behind Scary Movie, dropped 70% the next weekend and made a third of Forbes' break-even estimate.
The evidence
- Production budget: $170M. Some outlets list $200M. [1]
- Opened to $29.4M. Scary Movie opened to $55M the same weekend and took #1. [2] [3]
- Opening-weekend audience: 4% under 12, 57% over 35. [2]
- Kevin Wilson, Amazon MGM's head of domestic theatrical distribution: the opening "validates our holistic distribution strategy." [3]
- Second weekend fell 71% (Deadline). The episode rounds it to 70%. [4]
- Forbes estimated break-even at about $340M. It made $113.8M worldwide. [5] [1]
- Went to #1 on Prime Video, which Amazon owns. [6] [7]
Sources for this film
The Bride!Warner Bros. · March 202623/30
CAUSE OF DEATHThe budget
The finding
An R-rated, punk-rock Bride of Frankenstein at $80–90M, plus $65M to market it. It moved from October 2025 to March 2026, after del Toro's Frankenstein had already landed on Netflix. It opened to $7.1M against a $16–18M projection.
The evidence
- Production budget: $80M (The Numbers) or $90M (Variety). Marketing: about $65M. [1] [2]
- Warner Bros. projected a $16–18M opening. It opened to $7.1M. [2] [1]
- C+ CinemaScore. [2]
- Originally dated for October 3, 2025. Moved to March 2026. [2]
- Box office analyst Jeff Bock: Warner Bros. "spent twice as much as they should have." [2]
- Opened against Pixar's Hoppers ($46M). Del Toro's Frankenstein earned 9 Oscar nominations. Critics broadly praised Jessie Buckley's performance. [3]
- Second weekend fell more than 70%. [4]
- Final worldwide gross: $23.9M. [1]
Sources for this film
Desert WarriorMBC Studios · U.S. release by Vertical · April 202624/30
CAUSE OF DEATHProduction
The finding
Shot in 2021 at an unfinished studio in Neom. By MBC's own accounting the budget went from $70M to $150M+. It sat in post-production for more than three years, found a U.S. distributor in February 2026 and opened on 1,010 screens with almost no marketing.
The evidence
- Budget: $150M at most outlets. The Numbers lists $140M. [1] [2]
- Worldwide gross: $721,443 (The Numbers). Opening weekend: $487,848. Box Office Mojo now lists $759,228 worldwide, with a higher international figure. [2] [3]
- MBC's internal accounting: the budget started at $70M and finished at $150M or more. [1]
- Shot at a new studio in Neom that wasn't finished when cameras rolled. Crew from about 40 countries. 12,500 extras. [1]
- COVID closed the border for six weeks with equipment stuck outside. One producer puts the cost at $20M. [1]
- Shot on schedule in 120-degree heat. [1]
- Rupert Wyatt was sidelined in post, then brought back. Premiered at the Zurich Film Festival, 9/28/2025. [4] [5] [6]
- Vertical bought U.S. rights in February 2026. [1]
- Opened on 1,010 screens: $483 per theater for the weekend. [7] [5] [3]
Sources for this film
From the episode’s Coroner’s Report. Sources checked October 21, 2026. Scores express Mike’s interpretation of the evidence.
ON THE TIMELINE.
A NOTE ON THE NUMBERS.
Reported budgets can vary. The report preserves those differences and identifies its sources. Studio-return calculations are theatrical estimates, not audited profit figures. Streaming, licensing, and rental deals are not fully public.
Read the scoring method ↗